Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: PAULO HENRIQUE LOPES CARLOS

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : PAULO HENRIQUE LOPES CARLOS
DATE: 25/08/2021
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: meet.google.com/fuv-shie-apq
TITLE:

The impact of the governmental nonpharmaceutical interventions in Brazillian cities
during the first SARS-CoV-2 pandemic surge: An agent-based computational modeling
study of the City of Natal

KEY WORDS:

SARS-CoV-2, Agent-based epidemiological model, Complex networks, Natal-RN, Non-pharmaceutical government interventions.

PAGES: 45
BIG AREA: Ciências Biológicas
AREA: Biologia Geral
SUMMARY:

The first wave of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
pandemic hit almost all cities in Brazil in early 2020 and lasted for several months. Despite
the effort of local state and municipal governments, an inhomogeneous nationwide
response resulted in a death toll among the highest recorded globally. To evaluate the
impact of the nonpharmaceutical governmental interventions applied by different cities -
such as the closure of schools and business in general - in the evolution and epidemic
spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed a full-sized agent-based epidemiological model
adjusted to the singularities of single cities. The model incorporates detailed demographic
information, mobility networks segregated by economic segments, and restricting bills
enacted during the pandemic period. As a case study, we analyzed how the City of Natal -
a midsized state capital - reacted to the pandemic. Although our results indicate that the
governmental response was suboptimal, the restrictive mobility acts saved many lives, our
simulations showed that the suspension of school activities was essential to avoid a high
number of deaths (the increase would be around 452.71%). Work activities would
increase the number of deaths by approximately 1.73% and religious activities by 5.9%.
The absence of intervention would result in a catastrophic scenario of 16 thousand
deaths, this number corresponds to about 1.79% of the Natal city population. The
simulations show that a compartmental analysis of the alternative scenarios can inform
policymakers about the most impactful measures for further surges of the pandemic and
support future decisions as the pandemic progresses.

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