Banca de DEFESA: IGOR THIERRY SILVA DONATO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : IGOR THIERRY SILVA DONATO
DATE: 15/12/2020
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência
TITLE:

FINANCIAL FACTORS DETERMINATING THE FISCAL STRESS OF BRAZILIAN STATES

KEY WORDS:

Financial condition; Financial factors; Fiscal Stress

PAGES: 107
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

In recent years, it has been observed that some states have experienced problems in their
public finances, and it is reported that the high expenditure on personnel, the higher level of
stock of leftovers to be paid, the higher level of public debt and financial dependence on the

Union's resources have caused financial emergency, such as failure to pay permanent
employees, retirees, suppliers and debt creditors, so that the counter-guarantees offered by
the federal government are not honored. These facts were responsible for the poor financial
condition of the states to the point that some declared a situation of financial calamity or fiscal
stress. Thus, the present study adopted as its main objective to identify the financial factors
that determine the fiscal stress of Brazilian states. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed
data from the 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District in the periods from 2016 to 2019,
using the logistic regression technique with panel data in a pooled econometric model with the
inclusion of clusters. The dependent variable of the representative model of fiscal stress is a
binary variable (dummy) to demonstrate the presence or not of the fiscal stress event of the
states, built from content analysis of the reports of the Secretary of the National Treasury
(STN), of the reports annual financial statements of the states, budgets and news in the media.
The independent variables in the study are represented by indicators of cash, budgetary and
long-term financial solvencies. The results found demonstrate that the financial factors
representative of the liabilities to be paid, the long-term debt, the expenditure on personnel
for the current year and the previous year cause fiscal stress in the Brazilian states. On the
other hand, FPE tax revenue and transfer revenue factors for the current year reduce the fiscal
stress of Brazilian states. The results found in this research are corroborated by studies already
incorporated into the literature, such as the works of Shamsub and Akoto (2004), Trussel and
Patrick (2009), Gregori and Marattin (2015), Gorina et al. (2018) and Dantas Jr. et al. (2019).

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interno - 3220688 - ALEXANDRO BARBOSA
Externo à Instituição - JOSEDILTON ALVES DINIZ - UFPB
Presidente - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA