FOR A GREENER BRAZIL: A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL PROPOSAL FOR ILLEGAL MINING IN THE BRAZILIAN CAATINGA
Environmental Criminology; Illegal Mining; Econometric Modeling; Brazilian Caatinga Biome; Risk Assessment.
This dissertation endeavors to construct an econometric model to evaluate the risk of mining-related criminal activities within the Brazilian Caatinga biome. Integrating concepts from rational choice and routine activity theories, the study investigates illegal mining based on three critical dimensions: the offender through the efficacy of governance mechanisms overseeing miners (fines and police investigations), the target through the attributes of mined substances (VALUED approach for mineral desirability), and the geospatial characteristics of mining areas (legal mining areas and mining-related infrastructure). This research uses generalized linear regression models to analyze a grid composed of 10km² cells encompassing data aggregated over an eleven-year period (2010-2020) from such sources as ANM, CPRM, Federal Police, IBAMA, IBGE, Mapbiomas, Open Street Maps. The central findings of the research indicate a notable disconnect between the existing governance frameworks and their ability to deter illegal mining operations. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the study reveals that prevailing governance strategies, including law enforcement and regulatory fines, are largely ineffective in curbing illegal mining activities. Instead, the results highlight that the existence of legal mining operations considerably propel the likelihood of illegal mining activities. This suggests that areas with active legal mining inadvertently catalyze illicit endeavors. The dissertation contributes substantially to the fields of environmental criminology and mineral economics by providing empirical evidence against the effectiveness of traditional governance mechanisms in environmental crime prevention. It emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift from conventional enforcement models to more inclusive, participatory, and interlinked governance approaches. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of considering the economic allure of minerals and the spatial dynamics of legal mining activities in formulating holistic policy interventions aimed at evidence-based prevention of mining-related crimes.