Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARIA DA LUZ GOIS CAMPOS

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARIA DA LUZ GOIS CAMPOS
DATE: 05/06/2023
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

ANALYSIS OF THE TIME-SPATIAL DIFFUSION OF COVID-19 IN TWO BRAZILIAN  STATES

KEY WORDS:

Coronavirus (COVID-19); Socioeconomic, Demographic and environmental factors; Geographically  Weighted Regression (GWR); Dynamic Systems; Behavioral epidemiological model.

PAGES: 112
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUMMARY:

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic had impactful effects on the world's poverty level, as discussed in the vast  literature, as well as, affected regions with more vulnerable populations, both socially and in terms of  health and sanitary conditions. It is in this context that this study's main focus is to examine the flow of  the spread of the COVID-19 infection to the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Amazonas. Thus, using  data from the Secretariat of Public Health (SESAP) of the state of Rio Grande do Norte and from the  IBGE – 2010 Census, we analyzed the incidence of COVID-19 for the period of the SE49  epidemiological week (11/23/2020 to 11/29/2020). It is about of exploratory cross-sectional research,  whose empirical foundation is to analyze a local spatial model to model the incidence of COVID-19 in  the 167 municipalities of potiguar and its main determinants. From a methodological point of view, we  describe the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation, using Exploratory Spatial Data  Analysis (AEDE). It was observed the presence of spatial heterogeneity for the incidence of COVID-19  in the municipalities of the state, which allows adjusting a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)  model for the identification indicators of social vulnerability for a local analysis. From the results  perspective, it is demonstrated that the coefficients of the study variables showed patterns of associations  with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. Already for the study of the extensive  transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the state of  Amazonas, we used data from MonitoraCovid-19/Fiocruz and the Amazonas Health Surveillance  Foundation (FVS-AM) from march 9, 2020 to april 25, 2021. From a methodological point of view, we  used a descriptive ecological study, using continuous dynamic simulation modeling through dynamical  systems, with an emphasis on the behavioral, susceptible, infected, recovered, and dead (SIRD)  epidemiological model. This analysis procedure aims to estimate alternative scenarios, based on the  social distancing measures imposed by the state government of Amazonas, at the population level, to  predict deaths and cases by COVID-19.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo ao Programa - 2323056 - DIEGO DE MARIA ANDRE - nullInterno - 1422122 - JÁRVIS CAMPOS
Presidente - 1688188 - MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
Externo à Instituição - WEBER SOARES - UFMG