Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARCELO COELHO DE SÁ

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARCELO COELHO DE SÁ
DATE: 30/05/2023
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

Contribution of population aging to the growing spiral of adverse selection of beneficiaries in supplementary health in Brazil

KEY WORDS:

Supplementary health; Population aging; Adverse selection

PAGES: 147
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUMMARY:

The phenomenon of aging in Brazil is at an accelerated pace, causing, in a short period of time, greater effects than those observed in other countries. The typically triangular shape of the population pyramid, with a broad base, is giving way to a population pyramid characteristic of a society in an accelerated aging process. Population aging affects the basis of almost all economic and social processes and undeniably population aging poses a challenge to the public and private health system in Brazil, with supplementary health being inserted in this complex context, as it has presented a significant aging over the last 20 years beneficiary portfolio. Nevertheless, it is important to consider three particularities that, in addition to population aging, pose serious challenges to the supplementary health system in Brazil: adverse selection, failure of the entire insurance market and which refers to attracting beneficiaries with high risk above the population average; the intergenerational pact, a phenomenon that occurs due to the price limit of the plan for the elderly due to the price of younger beneficiaries; and the significant increase in health care costs, which occurs through the increase in prices for the frequency of use of medical services and materials. These complex specificities of the supplementary health sector act concomitantly and cyclically and form a spiral of adverse selection in the supplementary health system, which raises concerns about the future of supplementary health in Brazil. In view of this, the objective of this thesis is to project the population of beneficiaries of health plans in Brazil until the year 2050, assessing in this period the evolution of population coverage, the moment of inflection, speed and magnitude of this transformation, as well as the relevance of each specificity in this process, in particular, population aging. The hypothesis of this research is that, in the face of a scenario of significant increase in health care expenses and intergenerational solidarity, the aging of the Brazilian population will enhance the growing spiral of adverse selection in supplementary health, which will, therefore, cause a reduction in supplementary health coverage. below levels at the time of market regulation in 1998. In order to reach the proposed objective and test the hypothesis, this research will use the Monte Carlo simulation for the projection of beneficiaries, a mathematical technique that, from historical data, predicts the possible future results for a response variable, being this projection of beneficiaries of health plans carried out by stratum (microsimulation), annually, until the year 2050, with each of these subgroups exposed to a different set of assumptions. 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - CÁSSIO MALDONADO TURRA - UFMG
Interno - 1016026 - JOSE VILTON COSTA
Interna - 1715284 - LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
Presidente - 2002253 - MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA