Banca de DEFESA: MELINA FERREIRA MARTELLO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MELINA FERREIRA MARTELLO
DATE: 31/03/2022
TIME: 08:30
LOCAL: meet.google.com/jph-zowb-tmj
TITLE:

Projected climate-driven shifts in the distribution of Southwestern Atlantic corals support tropicalization

KEY WORDS:

Climate change; Range shifts; Brazilian coast; Marginal reefs; Species Distribution Models

PAGES: 37
BIG AREA: Ciências Biológicas
AREA: Ecologia
SUMMARY:

One of the main challenges in framing the future of coral reefs has been to predict species distribution shifts. To investigate which species are most likely to shift their distribution in Southwestern Atlantic (SWA) and how these shifts could alter the composition of coral assemblages in the future, we modeled the occurrence probabilities of 12 zooxanthellate corals that occur in marginal reefs along the Brazilian coast (1°N–27°S). We hypothesized that (i) the distribution of most coral species is likely to expand southwards due to a potential tropicalization of these areas, while tropical areas could become less suitable, and that (ii) corals with a current broader distribution will be more likely to expand their ranges due to greater dispersal potential and tolerance to environmental variability when compared to geographically restricted populations. We used Spatial Distribution Models with a Bayesian approach to predict the species occurrence probabilities in current and future time (2050 and 2100) under an intermediate scenario of increasing greenhouse gas emissions through the 21st century (RCP6.0), projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We found that the occurrence probabilities of all modeled corals will decline within the tropics (1°N–20°S) and increase towards subtropical sites (20–27°S) as early as 2050, with major declines predicted to occur between 9°S and 20°S, which coincides with the region comprising the richest reef complex in SWA, the Abrolhos bank. Great declines are expected to occur for Brazilian endemic and range-restricted major reef-builders, Mussismilia braziliensis and Mu. harttii, likely causing loss of structural complexity and its associated biodiversity. Higher occurrence probabilities in subtropical areas support the tropicalization hypothesis in SWA, which should benefit species that are already established in these areas, such as Mu. hispida and Madracis decactis, and potentially enrich coral assemblages through the range expansion of other broadly-distributed species, such as Siderastrea spp., Millepora spp. and Porites spp. These rearrangements could add complexity and functions to these marginal reefs or reverberate in unexpected ways, affecting the provision of goods and services, and drawing attention to the importance of long-term monitoring of reef communities. Predicted losses in tropical and gains in the subtropical regions emphasize the need to support ecological corridors that could aid corals to move towards more suitable areas and thrive facing climate change.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - CARLA ZILBERBERG
Presidente - 2319234 - GUILHERME ORTIGARA LONGO
Externo à Instituição - MARCELO VISENTINI KITAHARA
Interna - 1914239 - MIRIAM PLAZA PINTO