Banca de DEFESA: CARLOS LEANDRO COSTA SILVA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : CARLOS LEANDRO COSTA SILVA
DATE: 06/03/2024
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: https://meet.google.com/rnp-njnx-tij
TITLE:

Future of Invasive Plant Species in the Caatinga: Climatic Projections and Interactive Visualization

 

KEY WORDS:

Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (SDTF), Climate Change, Non native species, Species Distribution Model (SDM), Shiny Application.

PAGES: 108
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Ciências Ambientais
SUMMARY:

The increase in invasive plant species, which can thrive in new environments despite the challenges posed by climate change, highlights a significant ecological concern. In this context, the Caatinga, a seasonally dry tropical forest covering 833,000 km², emerges as a particularly vulnerable ecosystem. Climate fluctuations can make it even more vulnerable to biological invasions, opening up space for restructuring, such as the formation of no-analog communities. To study the complexities of this vulnerability, we used Species Distribution Models (SDMs), projecting the future distribution of 19 invasive plant species under two contrasting climate scenarios, divided into four time intervals until the year 2100. The modeling procedure was carried out using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), which is a statistical technique used for modeling species distributions based on presence data and environmental variables. Presence data and environmental variables were obtained from online databases. These data underwent treatment steps, including the removal of duplicate points and the reprojection, clipping, and creation of a bias surface. After creating individual models for each species, we performed an overlap between them, resulting in consensus models that offer a more integrated view of the potentially suitable invasion area in the Caatinga. To further explore the models, we grouped the species into trees, shrubs, herbaceous, and grasses. Additionally, we explored the possibility of forming no-analog communities by the end of the century. The analysis reveals that the same areas, with average annual temperatures between 24 and 27°C and higher precipitation, are more prone to invasions across all time intervals. Trees and grasses were the life forms with a greater quantity of suitable invasion areas. Megathyrsus maximus Jacq., Cenchrus ciliaris L., Cenchrus echinatus L., Dodonaea viscosa Jacq., and Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC. are the species with the greatest invasion potential in both scenarios. Despite the significant projection of the loss of suitable invasion areas in the Caatinga (-46.3% optimistic, -30.1% pessimistic, between the first and last time intervals), specific hotspots could still form no-analog communities, particularly under the ecosystemic stress induced by climate change. This raises significant concerns about the survival of native species, which are pressured by their physiological and resource limitations, triggering relevant measures to protect the Caatinga ecosystem and halt biodiversity loss, in line with the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goal 15 (Life on Land), assisting in new studies and projects for the protection of this unique ecosystem. To facilitate the dissemination and understanding of these results, we developed an interactive R Shiny application. We used the R programming language together with the RStudio Desktop environment, implementing essential libraries and functions, such as the Shiny package and complementary web technologies. The MDEs of each species, by life form, and the consensuses resulting from modeling in the previous study were stored in adequate resolution for internet visualization. The dynamic data (tables containing information about the species) were structured in separate directories to ensure efficiency in management and updating. The design of the initial screen was defined to ensure a user-friendly experience, using customized buttons and responsive visual elements. The final script of the application has 644 lines of code, divided into three titles and 22 sections. The application was published on the 'shinyapps.io' online hosting platform, featuring the buttons 'Information', 'Study Area', 'Modeling by Life Form', 'Modeling by Species', and 'Overlap Maps'. This tool acts as a bridge between academic research and practical application, allowing users to explore the distribution projections of invasive plant species in the Caatinga, emphasizing the importance of other approaches in the conservation of threatened ecosystems.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1718747 - PRISCILA FABIANA MACEDO LOPES
Interno - 2966354 - DIOGENES FELIX DA SILVA COSTA
Externo à Instituição - REJANE MAGALHÃES DE MENDONÇA PIMENTEL - UFRPE