Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ANDRE LUIZ SENA DA ROCHA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ANDRE LUIZ SENA DA ROCHA
DATE: 30/04/2024
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: https://meet.google.com/xcm-vyei-ubc
TITLE:

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) IN OIL RESERVOIRS OF THE POTIGUAR BASIN

KEY WORDS:

Reservoir Engineering. Oil and gas production. Net present value. Spatio-Temporal
Analysis. Geostatistics.

PAGES: 290
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUMMARY:

The Net Present Value is recognized as one of the most fundamental and widely adopted metrics in the financial analysis of oil and gas exploration projects. This metric assumes critical importance, considering that the extraction of oil from a well is not carried out until the resource is exhausted, but rather as long as it is economically viable. Given the intrinsic volatility of oil prices, the decision to shut down a well, even when it still contains oil, becomes a reality when extraction and maintenance costs exceed potential profits. Although NPV has been extensively studied in the literature, a common simplification in calculations is observed, where a fixed Minimum Attractiveness Rate and fixed costs for constructing the NPV are employed. This approach does not adequately reflect the volatility of the financial market. Therefore, in this study, we propose the use of a variable MAR, aligned with Brazil's risk-free interest rate (Selic Rate), which plays a crucial role in controlling inflation in the country. Unlike previous studies that consider fixed costs in the NPV calculation, this work also adopts an approach where all costs are variable and indexed to inflation, estimated by the IGP-M index. The use of this index is crucial for updating oil and gas prices and accurately reflecting the economic conditions that varied throughout the entire time series analyzed. Furthermore, the research advances beyond traditional temporal analysis, proposing a spatio-temporal study of NPV in real oil well reservoir data. The importance of a spatio-temporal analysis model lies in the significant influence of location and time on the pressure and productivity of wells belonging to an oil reservoir. The proposed methodology, integrating geostatistics to handle continuous data in a spatio-temporal model, is innovative in the context of NPV applied to oil reservoirs. It is expected that this model will provide a more in-depth financial analysis of the profitability of oil and gas production, considering both time and space. This two-dimensional approach can serve as a valuable decision-support tool regarding the continuation of oil exploration in specific wells and adjacent regions. The implementation of this model aims to achieve significant gains, including an increase in NPV in production fields, a reduction in operational costs and decision-making time, and an expansion of the options available to reservoir engineering professionals, thereby enhancing the reliability and effectiveness in decision management.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo ao Programa - 1217007 - ANDRE LUIS SANTOS DE PINHO - nullExterno ao Programa - 1781198 - FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES - nullPresidente - 277437 - MARCELA MARQUES VIEIRA