Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MATHEUS WINGLES ALVES RIBEIRO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MATHEUS WINGLES ALVES RIBEIRO
DATE: 06/09/2023
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Ambiente virtual (https://www1.ccet.ufrn.br/qualificacao-de-mestrado-matheus-wingles/)
TITLE:

Space-temporal Analysis of the Homicides Frequency in the Natal-RN districts from 2011
to 2021

KEY WORDS:

Space-Temporal Analysis; Intentional Lethal Violent Crimes; Bayesian Models;
CARBayesST.

PAGES: 47
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUMMARY:

The violence phenomenon has been present since civilizations beginning. It is the
result of the complex interaction of several elements, in addition exacerbated by the
segregation and exclusion arising from the urbanization process. The "crime" term is used to
describe the violation of the laws that regulate a society, which are guided by a system of
justice supported by the State. The city of Natal which is a capital of the Rio Grande do Norte,
went from being the least violent city in the country in 2003 to the most in 2017 with a rate of
102.56 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. From this point, we seek to analyze the impacts on
the number of occurrences of intentional lethal violent crimes (CVLI, which are classified as
intentional homicides, bodily injury followed by death, robbery followed by death, femicides
and other transgressions that lead to death, with the exception of deaths due from security
agent actions of state) in the Natal districts in period from 2011 to 2021, using the CARBayesST
package of space-temporal models that has conditional autoregressive priors (CAR) within a
hierarchical Bayesian scenario. To verify the autocorrelation, the Moran’s index was used and
the best fit and convergence through the criteria of Geweke et al. (1991), Spiegelhalter et al.
(2002), Watanabe and Opper (2010) and Congon (2005). For this analysis, we used information
on expenditure on public lighting and the amount of public equipment (squares, police stations
and schools) obtained from the Secretaria Municipal de Meio Ambiente e Urbanismo
(SEMURB), average nominal income from the 2010 Census and population estimation obtained
from the Worldpop Project, which uses census and geospatial bases, in addition to images
captured by satellites which, based on statistical modeling, produce estimates of population
distribution in several global areas.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 3010614 - ELIARDO GUIMARAES DA COSTA
Interno - 1781198 - FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES
Externo à Instituição - FRANCISCO ALIXANDRE ÁVILA RODRIGUES - UFCA