Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: TALITA VIVIANE SIQUEIRA DE BARROS

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : TALITA VIVIANE SIQUEIRA DE BARROS
DATA : 03/06/2019
HORA: 09:00
LOCAL: Auditótio do CCET.
TÍTULO:

Dengue in Natal / RN: an analysis of the period 2000-2016 via time series


PALAVRAS-CHAVES:
Aedes aegypti. Intervention Analysis. Infectious Diseases. Atypical Observations. Outlier. Change Point.


PÁGINAS: 39
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
RESUMO:
Dengue fever is an infectious disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This vector also transmits the chikungunya, zika and yellow fever. In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) has established the fight against dengue as one of the ten priorities for this year. It is estimated that almost half of the [WINDOWS-1252?]world’s population is at risk of dengue infection. Based on the above, this study aims to analyze data on reported cases of dengue fever between 2000 and 2016, obtained from the Center for Zoonoses Control (CCZ) in the city of Natal/RN, through time series. In Natal/RN since 2000 dengue outbreaks occur, implying the existence of possible atypical observations (denoted in this paper by outliers) in the historical series. In addition, an outbreak of zika occurred in 2015 and because of a similar symptoms, cases may have been reported as dengue. Therefore, we search for
a model that considers information of possible pattern changes and existence of outliers by intervention analysis. Models are compared using root mean square error (rMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of forecasts for the first 37 weeks of 2017.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Interno - 1217007 - ANDRE LUIS SANTOS DE PINHO
Externo à Instituição - BERNARDO BORBA DE ANDRADE - UnB
Presidente - 1218831 - CARLA ALMEIDA VIVACQUA
Interno - 1023112 - MARCELO BOURGUIGNON PEREIRA
Notícia cadastrada em: 27/05/2019 16:02
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