Banca de DEFESA: LEANDRO DE MEDEIROS DANTAS

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : LEANDRO DE MEDEIROS DANTAS
DATE: 23/06/2021
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Google Meet. Link da videochamada: https://meet.google.com/wtu-grqc-aqw
TITLE:

ACCURACY OF BASE AND TEMPORAL RECONCILIATION FORECAST METHODS OF ONSHORE OIL WELL CASING TUBES DEMAND: THE CASE OF BRAZIL’S STATES OF RN & CE

KEY WORDS:

Time Series Forecasting. Forecast Accuracy. Temporal Hierarchy. Casing tubes. Forecasting Methods.

PAGES: 107
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Produção
SUMMARY:

The decline in production of mature oil and gas fields has led companies to further optimize their inventory and acquisition costs. This work aims to compare the accuracy of different methods of base and temporal hierarchy forecasting of demand for coating tubes for onshore oil wells in Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará (RN & CE). The research method was exploratory used in the forecasting methods: naive, seasonal naive, ETS (ExponenTial Smooth), ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and THETA, with accuracy metrics: MAPE (absolute mean error), sMAPE (synmetric mean absolute percentage error), RMSE (root mean squared error) and MASE (percentage error absolute mean of scale), using a training approach in the period from 2010 to 2016 and testing in the years 2017 and 2018. For the base forecasts, the ETS and ARIMA methods match the best of the results, the benchmark itself (naive). Considering the temporal reconciliation, there were several improvements in different methods and metrics applied, however, not being unanimous in all cases. It is highlighted the THETA method when using this approach, which occurred because the base accuracy is low, therefore being more efficient in this scenario of low accuracy. The different results between the frequencies can be explained by the difficulties of the reconciled models of capturing, with relative accuracy, as components of trend and seasonality of the models.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1218831 - CARLA ALMEIDA VIVACQUA
Interno - 2456706 - MARIO ORESTES AGUIRRE GONZALEZ
Externo à Instituição - JOSÉ FRANCISCO MOREIRA PESSANHA - UERJ